President Marcelo questions immigration data
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has questioned the discrepancy between immigration data provided by the government and that from the National Statistics Institute (INE). INE stated that its most recent data is from 2023.
The National Statistics Institute (INE) is awaiting the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA) to send, 'as soon as possible,' data on 'the foreign population holding valid residence permits as of December 31' and on 'residence permits issued in 2024.' Only then can the discrepancy between government and INE migration figures be clarified—a matter of concern to President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
In response to ECO, INE explained that the latest data was sent by AIMA in 'June 2024' and refers to 2023. The agreement between the two institutions—still valid after the dissolution of the Foreigners and Borders Service (SEF)—states that provisional data should be sent in February and final data in May. INE said that this year, AIMA has 'not yet sent' such information, nor has it 'made any revisions to data sent in previous years'.
A week ago, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa noted that INE estimated Portugal's resident population would reach 10.74 million by December 2024, an increase of 109,000 from the previous year. However, in April this year, the government reported that over 1.546 million foreigners held residence permits in 2024.
Marcelo said at a press conference with Expresso: 'One thing isn't necessarily related to the other.' The head of state added that either there are 1.6 million immigrants and 12 million residents, or else the previously mentioned 10.74 million residents and around one million—or slightly fewer—immigrants.
According to Friday's report by Nascer do Sol, the government issued a clarifying statement to Belém this week in response to the President’s concerns. Marcelo responded to the newspaper, saying he 'feels that AIMA is right, not INE.'
'The data used by INE includes variables less reliable than those from AIMA,' he said, suggesting INE conduct an early census—scheduled for 2031, every ten years. 'We need to know whether our population is 11 million or 12 million,' Marcelo said.
The National Statistics Institute states it releases provisional resident population estimates each June 'according to the calendar set at the beginning of each year.' The institute reiterated that AIMA’s data will be included in these estimates, provided it is 'communicated in a timely manner.' This was not the case this year.
According to Portugal's Nascer do Sol newspaper, the discrepancy between AIMA and INE data stems from the accounting of processes related to Letters of Intent (EOI). The agency’s latest data (as of April 2025) shows that 1,546,521 foreigners held legal residence in Portugal, including those who obtained legal status through the EOI process.
However, INE’s 2024 data does not include around 440,000 applications and processes related to Letters of Intent, partly because the records reflect the year the application was submitted, not the year the process was completed. 'INE lacks sufficiently detailed information to incorporate these into its population estimation methodology,' the institute told the OECD.
Nonetheless, the statistical body explained that these estimates 'will be revised based on any supplementary information that may become available from the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology and from data-holding entities.'