What Seguro’s Overwhelming Victory Changes for Immigrants in Portugal
An analysis of the president-elect’s positions on immigration
António José Seguro was elected President of Portugal in the second round held this Sunday (8th), securing 66.82% (3,482,481) of the valid votes, compared to 33.18% for André Ventura of Chega. With this result, he surpasses the record set by Mário Soares in 1991, who had obtained 3,459,521 votes in a presidential election.
Seguro will now assume office at the Palácio Nacional de Belém for the next five years, replacing Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who had held the presidency since 2016.
The new president takes office in a divided country, amid intense debate centered on one of Europe’s major dilemmas: immigration.
After ten years of António Costa’s Socialist Party (PS) government, during which immigration laws were relaxed and the country experienced a significant influx of foreign nationals, the landscape began to shift in 2024.
Luís Montenegro of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) came to power and introduced more restrictive immigration policies. These measures included the approval of the new Foreigners Law, which eliminated the “manifestation of interest” pathway and made it more difficult to obtain residency; the creation of UNEF (National Unit for Foreigners and Borders), tasked with monitoring irregular migrants; and progress on amendments to the Nationality Law, extending the period of residence required for citizenship.
The PSD approved these restrictions while relying on an alliance with Chega, a far-right party with a strong xenophobic discourse led by André Ventura, in order to secure a parliamentary majority.
According to the Lusophony Barometer, immigration is considered one of the main concerns of Portuguese citizens and is expected to remain a key issue throughout 2026. Although the president does not directly govern or implement public policy, Seguro’s presence may prove decisive in shaping or influencing the approval of major legislation, particularly the Nationality Law.
Although he initially avoided addressing immigration, Seguro was compelled to clarify his stance, especially during a debate with Ventura on January 28. On that occasion, he defended regulated and controlled immigration, while also stating that “we need immigration.”
He emphasized immigrants’ contributions to the Social Security system, describing them as part of the “rejuvenation of our demographic base,” and indicated openness to measures similar to those proposed in Spain, which has been seeking to make regularization procedures more flexible.
Seguro has accused Chega of promoting “division and fear” within Portuguese society and has positioned himself as a candidate opposed to extremism. He has stated that he intends to be “president of all Portuguese,” rejecting the notion of “first- and second-class citizens.”
EntreRios invited two political scientists to analyze the president-elect’s profile regarding immigration and what to expect from his actions over the coming year.
Riccardo Marchi, a researcher at ISCTE-IUL, argues that Seguro inherits the legacy of António Costa’s government, which relaxed immigration rules and led to a boom in foreign arrivals.
“That policy opened the borders because there was a need for labor, particularly in tourism, agriculture, and hospitality. Portugal has experienced significant emigration due to low wages, and the government required low-cost labor,” he explained.
According to Marchi, immigration eventually became insufficiently controlled. After Costa moved to the European Commission, the Socialist Party shifted “to the right” on this issue, acknowledging that the policy needed revision as it began to negatively affect voters. This creates a complex situation for Seguro.
“His position is centrist and moderate. He says Portugal is a country that accepts differences and seeks dignity for immigrants. He does not want to associate himself directly with Costa’s policy, but he also denounces the racism of the radical right,” Marchi noted.
Marco Lisi, assistant professor in the Department of Political Studies at NOVA University of Lisbon, points out that although Seguro has been away from active politics for several years, he holds a more open view on immigration.
“It is a more inclusive, multicultural vision that values immigration and understands that the country benefits from it both economically and culturally,” Lisi stated.
He also argues that Seguro will likely seek to depoliticize immigration, given his favorable stance, while remaining aware that public opinion has increasingly leaned toward stricter controls.
“A significant portion of Portuguese citizens believe immigration controls should be strengthened, and Seguro knows he cannot go against them. As president, he does not directly propose national policy, and he will have to work with Parliament and with Montenegro’s government, which cannot take positions that are openly contradictory,” he analyzed.
Overall, maintaining a balance between immigration needs and social stability within the institutional framework will be one of the central challenges in the coming years. Based on his public statements, it is clear that Seguro tends to frame immigration as an economic and demographic issue rather than a tool for political mobilization. This pragmatic and institutionally oriented posture sends a relatively positive signal to those who value long-term planning and policy predictability.
Reference link: https://revistaentrerios.pt/postagens/antonio-jose-seguro-e-eleito-o-que-muda-para-os-imigrantes-em-portugal/
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